'Ted 2' Gets Bear

I have discussed before how 2012 was an uncommonly strong year for mid-to-low budget commercial ventures that hit harder than expected which resulted in, three years later, a flood of would-be “part 2”s that now fill up the 2015 release slate. Of those films, Seth MacFarlane’s Ted was easily the biggest of the bunch. And thus now we get the first teaser for Ted 2, dropping from Universal/Comcast CMCSA -1.33% Corp. on June 26th of this year. There will be another ad for this film this coming Sunday as word already leaked of a Super Bowl commercial involving Tom Brady and the “deflated football” scandal that I probably ought to look up so I can understand said Super Bowl commercial this Sunday. It’s not that I don’t care about football, but rather that everything I learned about the rules of football and how to strategically played football came from Tecmo Bowl and John Madden Football ’93.

The first Ted was an original R-rated comedy starring Mark Wahlberg as an overgrown adolescent whose best friend was the childhood teddy bear who magically came to life and stayed with him through adulthood. The film was a surprisingly witty and surprisingly profound mediation on arrested development, with an emphasis on how we hold on to the nostalgic tokens of our childhood as a crutch. Considering how much of Seth MacFarlane’s Family Guy was (at least initially) peppered with nostalgia-fueled references, it was almost courageous how brutally the film basically openly mocked and criticized the fan base of its creator. The film was a huge hit for Universal.

It scored a $54 million debut weekend (the biggest opening weekend for an R-rated “not based on anything” project), a $218m domestic total (the 3rd-biggest domestic total for an R-rated “not based on anything” project behindBeverly Hills Cop and The Hangover), and a stunning $549m worldwide cume (the fourth-biggest-grossing R-rated film ever behind The Hangover part II,The Passion of the Christ, and The Matrix Reloaded). It cemented Mark Wahlberg’s slow-but-steady status as a genuine “in the right project” face-on-the-poster opener and basically earned around 5.5x its $50m budget. So it is not surprising that we now have Ted 2, and now the only question is whether or not it will be anywhere near as good as the original and anywhere near as successful. The quality question isn’t one to be answered at the moment, but the commercial inquiry seems fare to at least discuss.

22 Jump Street was a rare comedy sequel that surpassed the original both domestically and overseas, earning $190 million domestic and $139m overseas ($332m total) compared to 21 Jump Street’s $201m total (including just $63m overseas). The Hangover part II is another precedent of sorts, opening at near-record levels (an $85m Fri-Sun debut frame of a $137m Memorial Day weekend frame) but falling slightly short of the first film domestically ($254m vs. $277m) while passing it overseas resulting in a noticeably larger worldwide total ($586m vs. $467m). That seems a plausible end point for Ted 2, one which Universal (and production companies Media Rights Capital, Fuzzy Door Productions, Smart Entertainment, and Bluegrass Films) would be perfectly happy with. Anything bigger than that will result in, inflation notwithstanding, one of the most successful R-rated films ever released.

Ted 2, starring Mark Wahlberg, Seth MacFarlane, Amanda Seyfried (who refreshingly doesn’t seem to be a new love interest), Mila Kunis, Richard Schiff (hopefully spoofing his “You hate me because I represent bureaucracy but you all know I’m right!” shtick), Patrick Warburton, Morgan Freeman, Michael Dorn, Dennis Haysbert, Liam Neeson, Sam J. Jones, John Slattery, David Hasselhoff, and Tom Brady, opens June 26th 2015 from Universal. As always, we’ll see.

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